Stochastic and deterministic low-order dynamical system modeling to analyze climate sensitivity and climate variability

Professor Sergei Soldatenko1, Dr Robert Colman1

1Bureau Of Meteorology, Docklands, Australia


There is emerging (and tantalizing) evidence of links between “natural” climate variability, and climate change.  Recent results suggest that climate feedbacks (including cloud feedback) are correlated between forced climate change and climate variability on interannual and decadal timescales.  There are hints, too, of relationships between the magnitude of climate variability on long (e.g. decadal) timescales in coupled climate models (CCM) and their climate sensitivity.  However, such relationships remaining poorly understood, limiting our confidence in using them as constraints for future forced climate change. Here we use low-order deterministic and stochastic dynamical systems (DS) to understand the fundamental processes driving such relationships and ask how robust they might be, how important are radiative feedbacks, and what basic physical process are driving them. To answer this, we use the DS and CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme) results to address the following questions: Why is the range of natural climate variability so large in CCMs in the first place, and what is the role of radiative feedbacks in this spread? What is the tightest relationship we should “expect” to find between climate sensitivity and climate variability on annual, decadal or multi-decadal timescales? How important are climate radiative feedbacks in this relationship? Would we “expect” to find a closer relationship between variability and transient climate response than equilibrium climate sensitivity, and what do the CCMs say? It is highly important using new methods to process and analyse climate data in our study.



Sergei Soldatenko was graduated from Military Aerospace University (MAU), St. Petersburg with MSc degree in Atmospheric Sciences. In 1983 he got the PhD from the same university, in 1992 the Doctor of Science degree in Math and Physics from the state university of St. Petersburg. Since 1990 to 1999 he was a Chairman of the Department of Meteorology at, Hydrology and Geophysics at MAU and then for a number of years he was a Lab Head at the Institute of Computer Science of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Since 2011 he is a senior professional officer at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.


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